2015 Atlantic hurricane season reanalysis project
Seasonal forecasts Season summary Timeline ImageSize = width:650 height:450 PlotArea = top:10 bottom:80 right:20 left:20 Legend = columns:3 left:30 top:58 columnwidth:270 AlignBars = early DateFormat = dd/mm/yyyy Period = from:01/03/2053 till:01/12/2053 TimeAxis = orientation:horizontal ScaleMinor = grid:black unit:month increment:1 start:01/03/2053 Colors = id:canvas value:gray(0.88) id:GP value:red id:TD value:rgb(0.38,0.73,1) legend:Tropical_Depression_=_<39_mph_(0-62_km/h) id:TS value:rgb(0,0.98,0.96) legend:Tropical_Storm_=_39-73_mph_(63-117 km/h) id:C1 value:rgb(1,1,0.80) legend:Category_1_=_74-95_mph_(119-153_km/h) id:C2 value:rgb(1,0.91,0.46) legend:Category_2_=_96-110_mph_(154-177_km/h) id:C3 value:rgb(1,0.76,0.25) legend:Category_3_=_111-130_mph_(178-209-km/h) id:C4 value:rgb(1,0.56,0.13) legend:Category_4_=_131-155_mph_(210-249_km/h) id:C5 value:rgb(1,0.38,0.38) legend:Category_5_≥_156_mph_(≥250_km/h) Backgroundcolors = canvas:canvas BarData = barset:Hurricane bar:Month PlotData= barset:Hurricane width:11 align:left fontsize:S shift:(4,-4) anchor:till from:08/05/2053 till:11/05/2053 color:TS text:Ana from:15/06/2053 till:18/06/2053 color:TS text:Bill from:13/07/2053 till:15/07/2053 color:TS text:Claudette from:04/08/2053 till:05/08/2053 color:TS text:Unnamed from:18/08/2053 till:24/08/2053 color:C2 text:Danny from:25/08/2053 till:29/08/2053 color:TS text:Erika from:30/08/2053 till:06/09/2053 color:C2 text:Fred from:05/09/2053 till:09/09/2053 color:TS text:Grace from:09/09/2053 till:11/09/2053 color:TS text:Henri from:16/09/2053 till:19/09/2053 color:TS text:Unnamed from:18/09/2053 till:27/09/2053 color:TS text:Ida from:02/10/2053 till:03/10/2053 color:TD text:Ida (SD) from:28/09/2053 till:08/10/2053 color:C5 text:Joaquin from:28/09/2053 till:28/09/2053 color:TD text:Unnumbered (SD) from:09/11/2053 till:12/11/2053 color:C1 text:Kate bar:Month width:5 align:center fontsize:S shift:(0,-20) anchor:middle color:canvas from:01/05/2053 till:01/06/2053 text:May from:01/06/2053 till:01/07/2053 text:June from:01/07/2053 till:01/08/2053 text:July from:01/08/2053 till:01/09/2053 text:August from:01/09/2053 till:01/10/2053 text:September from:01/10/2053 till:01/11/2053 text:October from:01/11/2053 till:01/12/2053 text:November TextData = pos:(570,30) text:"(From the" pos:(617,30) text:"Scales)" Storms Tropical Storm Ana Subtropical Depression One developed 13 hours earlier than the advisories were initiated Tropical Storm Bill Tropical Depression Two developed 26 hours before the first advisories were initiated Tropical Storm Claudette Tropical Depression Three developed 6 hours earlier than the advisories were initiated Unnamed Tropical Storm A Tropical Depression developed at 1PM UTC, and existed until 7AM UTC the following day, strengthening into a tropical storm kate in the timings The storm affected the US East Coast, making landfall in South Carolina as a tropical storm on August 5, before then becoming extratropical and continuing up the coast over the next 2 days before dissipating Hurricane Danny No changes to the timings have been made, however, I have downgraded Danny to category 2, which is supported by advanced and subjective Dvorak technique estimates of T5.0 and T5.4, which support 108 and 112 mph - 110mph as an average Tropical Storm Erika Tropical Depression Five developed at 7PM UTC on August 23 - a slight intensity change to account for the recon data around peak strength, which is supported by both subjective and advanced Dvorak techniques, at T3.4 and T3.5, respectively Hurricane Fred No changes in timings have been made to Fred, however, it has been decided to upgrade the system to category 2, based on advanced and subjective Dvorak technique estimates of T5.o from both agencies at peak intensity Tropical Storm Grace Tropical Depression Seven developed 12 hours earlier, at 0200 UTC on September 5, and the intensity has been raised to 60mph, based on advanced and Dvorak estimates simultaneously at T3.5 on 2 separate occasions during the storms cycle, as well as the eye feature clearly visible in satellite imagery at peak intensity Tropical Storm Henri Tropical Depression Eight developed 16 hours earlier, at 1200 UTC on September 8 Unnamed Tropical Storm No changes in timings have been made to Nine, however, I have raised the intensity to tropical storm status, due to both advanced and subjective Dvorak techniques giving the storm T2.5 for peak strength Tropical Storm Ida No changes have been made to Ida's original timelines, however, Ida regenerated at 0700 UTC on October 2 as a subtropical depression, and lasted until 0100 UTC on October 3 I have chosen to redesignate Ida due to the fact that the low was easily tracked by the NHC from dissipation as a tropical cyclone until the designated regeneration time Hurricane Joaquin Tropical Depression Eleven developed 9 hours earlier, at 1900 UTC. I have analysed the data from the UW/CIMSS to determine that this tropical cyclone made it to category 5 status briefly on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale s it was moving away from the Bahamas on October 3, which is supported by Dvorak estimates of T6.9 and T7.2 using the advanced and subjective Dvorak techniques around the time of peak intensity In addition, I have been able to upgrade Joaquin to a hurricane 6 hours earlier, at 0400 UTC on September 30 Unnumbered Subtropical Depression An unnumbered subtropical depression developed at 0700 UTC on September 28, lasting 12 hours before degenerating into a remnant low in the southern Gulf of Mexico Hurricane Kate No changes to the formation timings, but Kate did intensify into a hurricane at least 6 hours earlier than operationally thought by the NHC Though advanced and subjective Dvorak technique estimates support T5.0/category 2, Recon aircraft observations are more reliable, and so the intensity of 75mph is maintained for Kate Category:HURDAT